Sunday, February 24, 2008

Amazon Corridors Far Too Narrow, Warn Scientists
February 24, 2008 — Protected forest strips buffering rivers and streams of the Amazon rainforest should be significantly wider than the current legal requirement, according to new research. Brazilian forestry ... > full story

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Reducing Fisheries' By-Catch Through Mathematical Analysis
February 20, 2008 — Images of dolphins and turtles ensnared in tuna nets are a heart-wrenching reminder of the impact of fisheries on ocean bio-diversity. Known in fisheries science as 'by-catch,' this killing of ... > full story

Monday, February 11, 2008

Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse Blamed On More Than Climate Change


ScienceDaily (Feb. 11, 2008) — When the Larsen B Ice Shelf in Antarctica collapsed in 2002, the event appeared to be a sudden response to climate change, and this long, fringing ice shelf in the north west part of the Weddell Sea was assumed to be the latest in a long line of victims of Antarctic summer heat waves linked to Global Warming.

However in a paper published in the Journal of Glaciology, Prof. Neil Glasser of Aberystwyth University, working as a Fulbright Scholar in the US, and Dr Ted Scambos of University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Centre now say that the shelf was already teetering on collapse before the final summer.

“Ice shelf collapse is not as simple as we first thought,” said Professor Glasser, lead author of the paper. “Because large amounts of meltwater appeared on the ice shelf just before it collapsed, we had always assumed that air temperature increases were to blame. But our new study shows that ice-shelf break up is not controlled simply by climate. A number of other atmospheric, oceanic and glaciological factors are involved. For example, the location and spacing of fractures on the ice shelf such as crevasses and rifts are very important too because they determine how strong or weak the ice shelf is”.

The study is important because ice shelf collapse contributes to global sea level rise, albeit indirectly. “Ice shelves themselves do not contribute directly to sea level rise because they are floating on the ocean and they already displace the same volume of water. But when the ice shelves collapse the glaciers that feed them speed up and get thinner, so they supply more ice to the oceans,” Prof. Glasser explained.

Professor Glasser acknowledges that global warming had a major part to play in the collapse, but emphasises that it is only one in a number of contributory factors, and despite the dramatic nature of the break-up in 2002, both observations by glaciologists and numerical modeling by other scientists at NASA and CPOM (Centre of Polar Observation and Modeling) had pointed to an ice shelf in distress for decades previously. “It's likely that melting from higher ocean temperatures, or even a gradual decline in the ice mass of the Peninsula over the centuries, was pushing the Larsen to the brink”, said co-author Ted Scambos of University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Centre.

The focus of further study is now moving to the Larsen C shelf, a much thicker and apparently more stable area, and while there are at present no signs that this shelf is likely to collapse, Professor Glasser’s paper will play an important role in informing future study. The keen interest expressed in the paper has also been a boost to Professor Glasser’s hopes of raising funds to travel to Antarctica this year to conduct some of his research in the field.

Adapted from materials provided by Aberystwyth University.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Magma And Volcanoes: Physicists Explain Dance Marathon Of Wispy Feature In Roiling Fluids


ScienceDaily (Feb. 6, 2008) — Theoretical physicists at the University of Chicago are suggesting how thin spouts of magma in the Earth's mantle can persist long enough to form hotspot volcanism of the type that might have created the Hawaiian Islands.

Their calculations also apply to tendrils only a few inches long that form in convecting fluids under laboratory conditions. University of Chicago graduate student Laura Schmidt and Wendy Zhang, an Assistant Professor in Physics, will detail their findings in the Feb. 1 issue of the journal Physical Review Letters.

The work was inspired by laboratory experiments conducted by Anne Davaille in France that mimic, in a simplified way, convecting bubbles of magma as they might look deep beneath the Earth's surface. "This is one robust feature of thermal convection," Zhang said.

"It's a useful thing to know because it's the kind of thing that happens in all sorts of different industries, in all sorts of different contexts." These include oil extraction, the chemical industry and in certain biotechnological applications.

Earth scientists also have theorized that mantle plumes form on a regional scale in the Earth's interior, sometimes breaking the surface to form small landmasses, including Hawaii and Iceland. Nevertheless, debate swirls around how, or even if, mantle plumes can account for such surface features.

Geophysicists often liken a pot of boiling water as a smaller, more rapid version of the convection that takes place in the mantle, the layer of Earth that lies between the surface crust and its core. But unlike a pot of water, the Earth's interior consists of layers with different properties.

In laboratory experiments, Anne Davaille, a geophysicist at the University of Paris 7, studies convection in a small tank by heating two layers of colored liquids of differing densities. She observed the formation and persistence of thin tendrils between the layers, which correspond to subsurface plumes measuring scores of miles across.

"It seems so thin and tenuous, how could it possibly manage to hold itself in place over time as everything else is going on around it?" Zhang asked. "Somehow, they manage to hold themselves together."

The tendrils persist for hours, even as experimental conditions change. "These tendrils have fluid flowing through them, and it starts to mix the two layers," Schmidt said. "When the two layers mix, then the viscosity of the layers changes as well."

Following a series of visits to Davaille's lab, Schmidt and Zhang sought to mathematically explain the phenomenon.

"When you look at the shape of these very thin tendrils, there's something very striking that Anne noticed right away," Zhang said. The tendrils seem to emerge from flow lines that resemble the flared-out end of a trumpet. This trumpet shape marked the location of a stagnation point. Both Davaille's experiments and Schmidt's calculations agree: The thinnest tendrils that persist have a stagnation point.

Schmidt had seen a similar stagnation point in experiments she conducted in the laboratory of Sidney Nagel, the Stein-Freiler Distinguished Service Professor in Physics at the University of Chicago. Those experiments involved unmixable fluids, such as water and oil, instead of the fresh water and salt water mixing in Davaille's laboratory.

Nevertheless, the experimental similarities provided Schmidt and Zhang insights that helped solve the problem. In previous studies, other theoreticians suggested how large flows might rise through the tendrils from the base of the hot spots, Schmidt said. She and Zhang approached the problem differently.

"We include the effect of the stagnation point," Schmidt explained. "Our tendrils are really a thin skin or thin layer of the surface between the fluids that is drawn up. It's not a bulk flow going up through the tendril."

Adapted from materials provided by University of Chicago, via EurekAlert!, a service of AAAS.

Palestinian, Jordanian, And Israeli Researchers Build A New Partnership To Monitor Regional Earthquakes
February 6, 2008 — One of the world's most vulnerable areas for earthquakes lies in a region important for Palestinians, Jordanians, and Israelis, around the ancient city of Jericho. A serious earthquake could add to ... > full story

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Human-caused Climate Change At Root Of Diminishing Water Flow In Western US, Scientists Find


ScienceDaily (Feb. 1, 2008) — The Rocky Mountains have warmed by 2 degrees Fahrenheit. The snowpack in the Sierras has dwindled by 20 percent and the temperatures there have heated up by 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

All could lead to dire consequences for the water supply in the Western United States, including California. Scientists have noted that water flow in the West has decreased for the last 20 to 30 years, but had never explained why it was happening.

Until now. Scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison in collaboration with Scripps Institution of Oceanography, have pinpointed the cause of that diminishing water flow on a regional scale: humans.

“We looked at whether there is a human-caused climate change where we live, and in aspects of our climate that we really care about,” said Benjamin Santer of LLNL and co-author of the paper. “No matter what we did, we couldn’t shake this robust conclusion that human-caused warming is affecting water resources here in the Western United States.”

By looking at air temperatures, river flow and snowpack over the last 50 years, the team determined that the human-induced increase in greenhouse gases has seriously affected the water supply in the West. And the future brings more of the same.

“It’s pretty much the same throughout all of the Western United States,” said Tim Barnett of Scripps and a co-author of the paper.* “The results are being driven by temperature change. And that temperature change is caused by us.”

The team scaled down global climate models to the regional scale and compared the results to observations over the last 50 years. The results were solid, giving the team confidence that they could use the same models to predict the effects of the global scale increase in greenhouse gases on the Western United States in the future.

The projected consequences are bleak.

By 2040, most of the snowpack in the Sierras and Colorado Rockies would melt by April 1 of each year because of rising air temperatures. The earlier snow melt would lead to a shift in river flows.

The shift could lead to flooding in California’s Central Valley. Currently, state reservoirs are filled during the rainy season. As the water is drawn down, the reservoirs are replenished with snow melt from the Sierras.

If that snow melts earlier, as predicted in the climate models, the reservoirs could overflow.

“We are headed for a water crisis in the Western United States that has already started,” Barnett said. “A couple of decades ahead, we might not have that snowpack, making us more susceptible to flooding.”

Santer said the increase in predicted river flow should be a wake- up call to officials that the water supply infrastructure needs to be updated now, as opposed to waiting until the situation is urgent.

As for the warming, with the existing greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the Earth will continue to warm for the next 80-100 years.

“For someone who has seven grandchildren, that scares the hell out of me,” Barnett said. “I’ve seen the future and I don’t like it.”

*The research appears in the Jan. 31 online edition of Science Express. The findings also were presented at last year’s annual fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Adapted from materials provided by DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Bad News For Coastal Ocean: Less Fish Out, Means More Nitrogen In
February 2, 2008 — Commercial fisheries play an unexpected role in the decline of water quality in coastal waters. The study, the first to examine the world's 58 coatal regions, shows how failing to maintain ecosystems ... > full story